It seems possible that #Azerbaijan will soon take steps regarding #Khankendi and Armenia. As a response to the anti-peace steps of the Armenians, the algorithm of Azerbaijan’s military attack is quite clear. For example, if we briefly look at what happened in the context of Russia, Israel, Iran and Turkey, different meanings may emerge.
On September 9, the Gundarma “National Assembly of Karabakh” must elect a new president, because the “president” elected in 2020, Araik Harutyunyan, has resigned. Azerbaijan demands the abolition of the “state institutions” of Karabakh: the Presidential Administration, the National Assembly.
There is a possibility that Azerbaijan will launch a #military attack against the separatist “Artsakh” in order to prevent the separatist parliament from electing a new president, thereby starting the collapse of the state system in Nagorno-Karabakh.
It is no exception that in parallel with the gathering of troops and military equipment in the #Armenia-Azerbaijani border and the Karabakh zone, Azerbaijan has already made such demands to the Armenians of Karabakh.
And how long has Azerbaijan presented its rightful position, its fair position to the diplomats of #USA, #European Union and other countries.
Theses of a possible war could be:
Azerbaijan declares that Armenia has military units of 10,000 soldiers in Karabakh. #Baku demands that with the statement dated November 10, 2020, Armenia undertook to disarm Nagorno-Karabakh.
Yerevan claims that there are no armed forces under the #Armenia Ministry of Defense.
Azerbaijan cites military financial aid from Armenia to Karabakh, while Armenia claims that it is an interstate loan. , #Iravan finances illegal armed groups. And supposedly, “as a result of the 2020 war, tens of thousands of people were deprived of their homes as a result of the occupation of the territories and settlements of Karabakh. Armenia allocates this money to Nagorno-Karabakh to provide them with housing and get out of the difficult social situation.”
After all, there is a “Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army” made up of local Armenians. Supposedly, this group exists because “Azerbaijan is preparing for war and the #genocide of Armenians. That is, without the Defense Army, Azerbaijan will kill and deport 120,000 Armenians within three hours.”
It is interesting why no one saw the rally of 120,000 Armenians who “died of pain” in Khankendi Square.
Azerbaijan recognizes the rights of local Armenians and its citizens, treating the rights and security issues of Armenians with the right of internal sovereignty. But the separatists of Armenia and Karabakh talk about “negotiations with #Stepanakert through an international mechanism and providing security guarantees”.
Azerbaijan does not want to start a war. Law and negotiation offer integration. But the Armenians use the opportunity to speak as a terrorist goal, and as a result, face an ultimatum.
Of course, the world will not agree with the #Khankendi integration plan, which feels the Armenian power behind it.
Baku declares that Khankendi separatists do not accept its constructive proposals, therefore Azerbaijan is forced to launch a military operation to establish Azerbaijan’s control over the region. Before the war, Azerbaijan also states that the Armenian side has heavy military equipment in Karabakh and continues to lay mines, does not provide accurate maps of the mined areas, and does not reveal the places of mass graves.
But will Azerbaijan’s tough stance prevent Khankendi separatists from holding elections?
It seems that the Azerbaijani army will have to answer these questions.
Armenia claims that “if Azerbaijan prevents the elections, there will be no elected president of Karabakh and his representatives with whom Baku should negotiate. If it is possible to convince Baku that it should give up military terror and rhetoric and meet with Stepanakert, #Aliyev will not launch a military attack at this time.”
It is known that Aliyev is not going to sit down at the negotiating table with the separatists in his region and discuss, he is only concerned with the fate of ordinary Armenian citizens in the region.
Another question:
What will Russia’s position be in the event of a potential war?
Answer: after watching Peskov’s and Zakharova’s speeches and bringing an American soldier to Armenia, the result is known.
Russia’s positions in the #South Caucasus are weakening. Months ago #Erdogan declared that Russian peacekeepers should leave Nagorno-Karabakh in 2025. But now it should and should work in the region. Who knows, maybe he is not dead, but if he survives, one day the separatist regime may declare war against Armenia.
Russia’s calculation is that the Armenian side will be weakened due to the war and will turn to #Moscow for help. Diplomatic sources say that Russia wanted to have its troops along the entire border in parallel with the demarcation works of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
However, the Armenian side insisted earlier that the troops should be withdrawn from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the border guard should be placed further. Now Russia would like to control the sovereign territories of Armenia, and Armenia says that we are being invaded. There may be some kind of conflict that would give Russia an opportunity to send troops to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
People close to Pashinyan say that if Azerbaijan is moving towards Sunik territory, then it is coming for the corridor, and this is good for Russia as well. Interestingly, Aliyev repeatedly said in his speech that Pashinyan made a commitment regarding the corridor in November 2020 and ran away from it. Therefore, Azerbaijan can justify its will to buy the corridor based on the commitments taken by Nicol.
PRESIDENT Ilham Aliyev recently said at the meeting of the EU that Russia supports the idea of Azerbaijan (Zangezur Corridor). Russia also willingly supports the control of the Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan-Turkey road route.
This is part of Russia’s military plans against Armenia: the deployment of the EU observation mission in Armenia starting from October 2022 has caused great dissatisfaction in Russia.
Armenia rejected Moscow’s offer and refused to host #KTMT observers. By the way, in the initial version of the announcement dated November 9, 2020, it was stated that Russian peacekeepers should be deployed in Sunik, Mehri sector to ensure the security of the Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan-Turkey corridor.
It was Russia’s proposal, but at the request of Armenia, the clause regarding the deployment of Russian peacekeepers was removed, so the Russians were not deployed in Syunik.
Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia stated that after Armenia recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, the status of Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh changed. For this reason, Russia blames Armenia for closing the #Lachin Corridor.
But there is also an interesting point: after November 9, 2020, Vladimir Putin recognized Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, and Russian peacekeepers were deployed there.
Armenia is also dissatisfied with Lavrov’s plan because there is no mention of Russian peacekeepers or any other security mechanism in Karabakh.
What will be the new status of Russian peacekeepers?
In my opinion, this status will take a completely different characteristic in 2025.
But Armenia should not forget that Russia, which it condemns, issued Russian passports to many of the separatists in order to protect their existence.