The renewed tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia against the background of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the approach of the United States to Yerevan indicates major geopolitical changes in the region.

Let me briefly share that last night was very bad in Armenia.

It is claimed that there are 3,000 members of the terrorist organization “Wagner” in Armenia, 2,000 of them are mainly ethnic Armenians, and their mission is to carry out a coup d’état in Armenia. He says that some Wagners have already been arrested by the National Security Service. Of course, this latest news is a little unbelievable, because the umbilical cord of the country’s National Security Service is connected to Moscow.

The scenario and the tableau are very interesting: the two-day verbal conflict with Putin and Pashinyan in the lead roles is being replaced with new details. Russia accuses its former ally of open treason, while Yerevan accuses Moscow of “not looking at its face”.

Not only that, Yerevan actually wants to share the security role played by Russia and is taking some small (yet) steps, like bringing #EU observers to the region. Imagine, #Iran, which is in an extremely bad position against the West, did not prevent the European Union observers from entering Armenia, did not condemn the Armenian-American peacekeeping exercises.

But later, the colors related to Iran will change in the showcase.

We understood that Iran already believes that it is in its interests to strengthen the sovereignty and security of Armenia even with the help of the West. Supposedly, the stronger and safer Armenia is, the more protected Iran’s Northern border and #Sunik will be. That is, the interests of Iran and the West coincide with Armenia’s current plans to change players.

But listening to Putin’s speech yesterday, everyone must have come to the conclusion that Russia still holds the stereotype that Armenia belongs to it and cannot act without permission.

Armenia’s leaders waived their national security immunity to Russia.

Armenia joined #CTMT, #EU and placed a Russian military base on its territory, but this led to an increase in Armenia’s security level. Until Nikol Pashinyan lost the war in Karabakh and accused Russia.

In another tableau, Iran incites the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, provides arms and support to Yerevan.

Iran is actively intensifying the new phase of the conflict in the South Caucasus region. Against the backdrop of reconciliation efforts between Azerbaijan and Armenia under the auspices of the EU and the US, Iran has been making every effort to incite revanchist sentiment in Armenia in recent weeks and has shown military support by mediating the purchase of arms from India.

It was on such an agenda that Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian and Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan called, touching on the military exercises held between Armenia and the United States, and assessing the presence of any foreign forces in the region as a factor complicating the situation in the region. The Minister of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the most efficient way to achieve comprehensive peace is through regional dialogues and mechanisms, including the “3+3” format.

In another window, it is revealed that the prince in exile, Reza Pahlavi, criticized the Iran-US prisoner exchange agreement.

Pahlavi warned the current American administration and warned that the Iranian people will not forget those who turned away from them and sided with the oppressors in their most difficult times.

He concluded his statement with a message of resistance to the people of Iran, urging them to continue the struggle: “My compatriots, nurture the flame of hope in your hearts. The Islamic Republic will fall because you are standing in front of the great people of Iran.”

The deal reportedly came amid speculation that $6 billion in unfrozen Iranian funds would be transferred from South Korea to banks in Qatar, which could lead to the release of hostages held on both sides.

The United States, which appears to be an open enemy, sends a positive message ahead of the Iranian president’s visit to New York so that he can get something.

By the way, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during his speech at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies that “the growing geopolitical competition between the US and Russia and China signals the end of the world order that emerged after the Cold War.” He called what is happening in the world today a turning point. “One era ends, another one begins,” said Blinken.

In addition to what Blinken said, let’s look at the regional context from the Caucasus:

Today, the United States calculates that the presence of Russia in the Caucasus, the strengthening of Turkey, and the potential presence of Iran, which has warned against border changes, mean a new conflict. Because Iran has a northern border with Armenia and a line to Europe. Actions by the EU and the US in the region, including Iran, could create a potential Turkish-Iranian conflict and result in unmanageable destabilization in the Middle East and beyond, which neither Russia nor the U.S.

It is something that the US does not want.

The last US intervention in the Caucasus took place in 1919. It is the first time since the Cold War that a country other than Russia is in the foreground in the region.

Washington is pretending that Armenia is being invaded on a large scale, and is calculating the gains it will achieve with the thesis of prevention. Or why, in the September battles, US Ambassador Lynne Tracy risked her safety and went to Syunik, the southernmost region of Armenia, despite the permission of her own embassy. The US, which invaded the region under the guise of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia, is actually trying to tear Armenia, the region’s weakest link, from Russia.

Let’s go back to the Iranian scenario:

Iran’s foreign minister suddenly called his Armenian counterpart yesterday and announced that he considers it correct to turn to regional negotiations and mechanisms such as the 3+3 format, which unites Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, Turkey and Iran, as the most effective means to achieve comprehensive regional peace.

After Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Victory, the Six or “3+3” cooperation platform, which consists of the three countries of the South Caucasus, Turkey, Russia and Iran, prepared by Turkish President Erdogan together with President Ilham Aliyev, came to the fore.

Statistics: According to calculations, the total economy of the countries in the “3+3” format is close to 3 trillion dollars, which means the 5th largest economy in the world after the United States, China, Japan and Germany. This new format is the 3rd largest in the world with a population of 331 million people, and the first in terms of territory. This scale shows that the opportunities for mutual investment, cooperation in the industrial, agricultural and service sectors between the countries included in this format are very wide.

Even the “3+3” format has the power to change the transport architecture, including the “Zangezur Corridor”. Russia can connect with Iran through the North-South route through Azerbaijan, and Iran can connect with Georgia through the South-West route through Azerbaijan. Turkey can further expand its relations with Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran through this corridor. On December 10, 2021, the first meeting of the “3+3” regional consultation platform on the South Caucasus was held in Moscow, the capital of Russia. The meeting was co-chaired by the Deputy Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and the Director General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran.

Having seen the US forces, then the EU mission and the predicted many tense powers in the region, Iran has been saying it is a brother to Azerbaijan for the past two days, sometimes it does not mobilize troops in the region, sometimes it wants the 3+3 format to be activated immediately and the withdrawal of other forces from the region.

But it is worth reminding that the US soldier came to the tip of Iran’s nose and imposed a ban on its senseless red line and Zangezur corridor.

As they say, Nishestend u goftend u ber-hâstend…

Work, be honest and survive,