Unfortunately, the Armenian side read Erdogan’s statement yesterday as follows:

“The death of Zangazur corridor is approaching. Russia’s new defeat? After the last war against Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia will probably stop their territorial claims to Armenia under the name of “Zangezur Corridor”.

Turkish President Erdogan made a statement on the issue of regional blockade.

For some reason, being in Armenia is always accompanied by a very different phenomenon. Seeing even the most primitive good immediately as the defeat of the other party is considered one of the greatest diseases.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan hinted that the Zangezur corridor may not be in the territory of Armenia.

“Establishing direct land and railway connections with Nakhchivan and other regions of Azerbaijan will further strengthen our relations. Therefore, we will do everything to open this corridor as soon as possible. The implementation of this corridor is very important for Turkey. For Azerbaijan, this is a strategic issue and must be completed.

When this corridor opens, a car or train from Baku will be able to come directly to Kars. It is gratifying to see positive signals from Iran in this matter. The railway passes through Turkey to Nakhchivan, Armenia and Azerbaijan. If Armenia does not give way, where will it go? It passes through Iran. Iran is now looking positively at this issue,” Erdogan said.

The Turkish president said that the issue of the regional blockade should be resolved without conflict and uproar.

“If we want the corridors of Zangezur and Lachin to become a corridor of peace, we must solve this issue without conflict and noise. If Armenia is against it, that road will pass through Iran. “Iran now looks positively at this issue.”

It is not understood how Armenians understand such a beautiful and constructive, rational statement as follows:

“This new statement by Erdoğan may mean that Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia will give up their plan to obtain the Zangezur Corridor by force against Armenia. “Iran and the United States have a very big role in this issue.”

However, with his statement, Erdogan was able to confront Armenia and Iran over strategic interests. Because it was hinted to Iran that we are taking you into account, but there is also the option of Armenia, and it was announced for Armenia that we can make this project a reality with your ally Iran, so that your history may be lost.

Let’s go back to the US issue.

So, the root of all the processes is the accident that happened in the Suez Canal a few years ago.

So, in 2021, with the sinking of the “Ever Given” ship with 20 thousand containers on board, a crisis occurred in the world economy within a week. This event showed that the world urgently needs an alternative way:

One third of the world’s container shipping and 12 percent of world trade cargoes pass through the Suez Canal

Many alternatives have emerged, such as the Ora Corridor launched by China, the new corridor announced by India this month, and the North-South Corridor between Russia and Iran.

Of course, the most ideal for Azerbaijan and Turkey was the Middle Corridor, and the attempt to draw the path of the United States and India against China through the Arabian Peninsula/Israel and the Mediterranean Sea/Greece is a serious blow to the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The most “creative” detail here is related to Russia. Hundred years ago, Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as Qajar, discovered a sword on the head of Iran and gave it as a gift to Armenia, where it completely built Zangezur region. Now, at a time when Russia needs new communications and markets in its war with the West, it wants the Zangezur corridor, but Armenia, which relies on France, India, Iran and the United States, declares that it will not provide the corridor.

Immediately comes the answer from Russia:

“If Armenia’s relations with Russia deteriorate, all of Zangezur may rejoin Azerbaijan.”

These views were voiced by former deputy of the Russian State Duma, political scientist Sergey Markov.

“The USA and France are trying to spoil Armenia’s relations with Russia. Then the CSTO will not help Yerevan, there will be no transport corridor through Zangezur, on the contrary, all of Zangezur will rejoin Azerbaijan. It was like this even before the USSR gave this territory to Armenia. Do you think that only Karabakh will be part of Azerbaijan?” he said.

We are not talking about the latest statements of Margarita Simonya yet…

Margarita Simonyan

The other day, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had a telephone conversation with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. The telephone conversation was initiated by the American side. The US Secretary of State stressed that there should be no more military operations. Aliyev assured that there will be no military operations.

Yesterday, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reported that the US and Turkey are also discussing the issue of Zangezur Corridor. Miller noted that the United States is working with the Turkish government on this matter:

“One of the issues that Secretary of State Blinken discussed with his Turkish counterpart last Friday in New York

That was it. We hope that all our allies and partners can do the same. The United States, including Turkey, plays a constructive role in reaching a permanent agreement.”

From the words of the press secretary of the US State Department, it can be concluded that the US worked with Turkey in order not to demand the Zangezur corridor from Armenia.

Perhaps it is a true claim that Erdogan’s words about not going to a new conflict confirm this. It is no coincidence that after the meeting with Blinken in New York last Friday, Erdogan said while returning from Nakhchivan that if Armenia does not want, the Zangezur Corridor can pass through Iran.

However, since yesterday, the Turkish media started talking about some part of the 2020 contract that is not known to the public – the gentleman’s agreement.

According to the comments, the Prime Minister of Armenia has made a commitment. And the target is already at three specific points: the villages of Zangezur, Karki, Gazakh…

Kazakh villages

But how is this claim possible?

“It can be concluded that the US has warned Turkey about the importance of stopping the pressure on Armenia regarding the Zangezur Corridor. Earlier, Turkey definitely believed that the Zangezur corridor should pass through the territory of Armenia.

It seems absolutely impossible that Turkey will change its rhetorical view against Armenia under the pressure of the United States.

Even if Turkey changes, Russia is ready to correct its historical mistake of the last 300 years, when two Asian powers, Russia and Turkey, once enemies of Europe and the West as a whole, had the opportunity to unite.

What is the official view of Armenia on the issue of the Zangezur Corridor and would it like that road to pass through its territory? On the day Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Nakhchivan, Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Gnel Sanosyan stated that Armenia has never agreed to any extraterritorial or corridor logic and will not.

“Armenia has never agreed to any extraterritorial or corridor logic and will never agree. But we are committed to the agreements reached at a high level. At the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on July 15, the following agreements were reaffirmed:

Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity with 29.8 and 86.6 thousand square kilometers, respectively.

The delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan will take place on the basis of the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration.

Regional communications should be unblocked based on the principles of sovereignty, jurisdiction and reciprocity of the parties.

These agreements are open and announced by the President of the Council of Europe Charles Michel at the end of the meeting. Within the framework of this agreement, the Republic of Armenia is not only ready for the opening of the communication block, but also wants it to happen as soon as possible, because it is in our interests,” said the Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure of Armenia.

In general, why does Armenia think that Azerbaijan is trying to occupy its territory?

Azerbaijan explained its position in the normal form within the framework of international law and accepted the obligations to Armenia with the agreement of November 10 that it needs a road to another territory – Nakhchivan.

What does this mean that after Iran and Russia, now France has decided to open a consulate in Mehrid.

Thus, the Armenian minister answered Erdogan’s question as follows: Does Yerevan agree to the opening of the Zangezur corridor or not? Turkey and Azerbaijan should respect the sovereignty and rights of Armenia, so that the movement and road on that road is opened.

It is a very incomprehensible position: Azerbaijan already accepts it.

Now in Armenia they claim that at the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan expected in Granada at the beginning of October, it will be clear whether Azerbaijan will abandon the strategy of making a territorial claim to Armenia under the name of the Zangezur Corridor.

And supposedly, “if Turkey and Azerbaijan decide not to make territorial claims to Armenia again and accept Armenia’s jurisdiction on the way, there will be no problem in lifting the blockade.” Armenia cannot be asked to deploy Russian military forces on this road. This is also a red line for the Armenian side.”

We immediately understood where this red line idea came from, I think..

Azerbaijan is ready to provide a way for Armenia to go to Russia when the roads are opened.

But if Turkey and Azerbaijan decide on the passage of the Zangezur Corridor through Iran, does Russia stay out of the game?

Zangezur Corridor: Why can’t Azerbaijan and Armenia agree on the restoration of communications? – BBC News in Azerbaijani
Zangezur corridor

In such a case, Turkey can easily explain that the root of the problem lies either in Armenia, Russia’s former ally, or in Iran, its current ally.

Ilham Aliyev, who participated in the session of the EU on May 25, 2023, announced that the Zangezur corridor was his idea and that Baku has the support of Russia in this matter. In recent days, Russia has been trying to persuade Iran to agree to the opening of the Zangezur Corridor

made a lot of effort to

However, Russia has not yet been able to convince Iran to open the Zangezur corridor. On September 25, during the meeting of Erdogan and Aliyev in Nakhchivan, the Prime Minister of Armenia received the Ambassador of Iran, Mehdi Sobhan, and he once again emphasized the clear position of the Iranian side regarding the protection of Armenia’s territorial integrity.

Even Iran has previously declared at the highest level that the territorial integrity of Armenia is a red line and they will not allow the borders to be changed. The spiritual leader of Iran received Erdogan and Putin in July 2022. In a meeting with the leaders of Russia and Turkey, Ayatollah Khamenei openly opposed the opening of the Zangezur Corridor.

What a strange sight: for the first time, Iran and the United States have united against the Zangezura Corridor, which will be built through the territory of Armenia.

There is also a very weak possibility that the West might somehow look favorably on the Russia-free corridor.

Russia can pay the price of Iran and Armenia taking part in a united front against it, especially in Yerevan, in bloody form. The Armenian population transferred from Karabakh to Gorus has a pro-Russian opinion.

If there is territory, if there is an army (the 102nd military base), it seems that Russia will occupy Zangezur with the hands of its own Armenians (with the experience of “Artsakh”).

Don’t say he didn’t say, how many days the archival maps of the Russian General Staff have not been opened in vain…

Aziz Alibeyli
STM department head/Globalinfo.az