As part of preparation for participation in international peacekeeping missions, the #Armenia-#USA joint “EAGLE PARTNER 2023” exercise was launched on September 11 at the “Zar” Training Center of the Peacekeeping Brigade of the Ministry of Defense.
It is interesting. What kind of peacekeeping activity is Armenia expected to be involved in? Or how do those who made this decision forget the fact that #Irevan is occupied? Or what kind of political and historical progress can be made with the weakest point in the region?
There are many questions, and if we add one of the most important of these questions, why did the US-Armenia cooperation start on the anniversary of September 11?
The logic doesn’t make sense…
The campaign that the world started with the “hoggas” of the United States ended with the destruction of Afghanistan, Iraq and later #Syria, in the modern era, in fact, Washington committed such an act of terrorism to establish a new world order and change the level in the Middle East, to determine new rules of the game. is known. And Armenia? This is clearly a terrorist state and has been doing it for years in its bare form…
It is the first time that #American and #Armenian military personnel conduct joint military exercises in Armenia. This peacekeeping exercise has caused sharp displeasure in the #Kremlin. However, despite Russia’s obvious complaints, #Iravan has decided to accept the US proposal and organize military exercises. #European Union observers are also in Armenia and they are also targeted by the Kremlin and #Baku. It is clear that Armenia is balancing its security system and trying to weaken its strong security dependence on a single center (#Russia).
Another proof that Armenia supposedly balances the #security system is the experience of buying weapons from #India and other countries.
It is known that after attacking #Ukraine, Russia itself is facing problems and cannot sell weapons to Armenia. This creates a very good opportunity for Armenia to reduce its dependence on Russia in the purchase of weapons, which Russia has not thought about.
“Balancing the security system further increases the security of Armenia.” They say, but this is nothing more than giving Yerevan a war alternative for a new war in the region.
Let’s go back to another part of the topic:
People queue for bread outside a bakery. In the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the Caucasus deep in the south of the former Soviet Union, the situation is coming to a threatening head. Since December 2022, Azerbaijan, to which the region belongs under international law, has blocked the Karabakh Armenians’ lifeline to the nearby motherland Armenia. Armenians in the internationally unrecognized entity fear starvation. Estimates range from 100,000 to 120,000 people. Since December 2022, Azerbaijan, to which the area belongs under international law, has blocked the Karabakh Armenians’ lifeline to the nearby motherland Armenia. (to dpa “No bread, no medicine: Desperate situation in Nagorno-Karabakh”)
The exercises of the United States also raise serious security signals for Azerbaijan. Thus, in the Karabakh region, despite all its confessions and recognition of our territorial integrity, Armenia holds separatist elections and allocates a large amount of aid to the region.
Currently, the situation in the Karabakh region is such that many countries, including Armenia and Iran, and the European Union, by not recognizing the elections, create an opportunity for Azerbaijan to intervene in the region for military operations and save the local Armenian citizens from separatist hostages.
Let’s look at another important issue:
The American Governor General in #Nakhchivan is a form of military administrative management created by the #United States of America in order to strengthen itself in the South Caucasus and prepare the ground for giving Nakhchivan under Armenian control.
The plans of the United States, which is trying to gain influence in the Caucasus, to strengthen in the Nakhchivan region, which is located in a favorable strategic position, were reflected in the document called “Haskel projects” proposed by the American colonel V. Haskell, who was appointed high commissioner to #Armenia by the Entente states in September 1919. In the project, it was envisaged to declare Nakhchivan and Sharur-Daralayaz districts, which are Azerbaijani lands, as a separate neutral zone and to establish the Nakhchivan General Governorship in this area.
The Dashnak government of Armenia, which was trying to acquire Nakhchivan under the protection of the United States, was eager for the realization of “Haskel projects”. In 1919, the United States tried to capture a part of the territory of Azerbaijan – the land of Nakhchivan. The United States considered Nakhchivan, located at the junction of the South Caucasus, Iran and Turkey, as an area of special military-strategic importance. In the directive sent by V. Haskell to the governments of Azerbaijan and Dashnak Armenia, it was stated that the Nakhchivan #Azerbaijan People’s Republic Government categorically rejected these projects, which are against the interests of the people of Azerbaijan, including the population of Nakhchivan, and stated that it will not allow them to be realized.
Haskell’s deputy, Colonel James Ray, arrived in Nakhchivan on October 24, 1919, and #Muslim
Announcing V. Haskell’s statement in front of the National Council, he announced that the governorship had been created and Colonel Edmund L. Delli, an engineer of the US army, had been appointed as its head. This statement, which was welcomed by the Armenian-Dashnak government, faced strong opposition from the Government of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic and serious resistance from the people of Nakhchivan. At the insistence of the Nakhchivan National Council and the entire population of Nakhchivan, James Ray was forced to change his decision. Delli stayed in Nakhchivan not as governor-general, but as a representative of #Entente high commissioner V. Haskell. In January 1920, the last American soldier left the land of Nakhchivan. Thus, the strong resistance and stubborn struggle of the people of the region, and the serious diplomatic efforts of the Government of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic prevented this next act of provocation in time and thwarted the Armenians’ intention to capture Nakhchivan with the help of the United States.
Let’s go back a hundred years later:
If #Armenia can enter the US hegemony in the region, this creates serious security problems for Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia, as well as Iran.
But what steps can we predict in the current situation:
It is interesting that as early as 2020, immediately after the war, some sources from Iran and Russia suggested that the Astana format could be applied to Karabakh.
Astana format: It is the name of the peace-making activity between Iran, Russia and Turkey in Syria, and in fact, the three powers of the region united and stood in front of the realities in the region for the United States, and Iran and Russia were able to influence the process by standing by Assad and Turkey in front of the #PYD.
In Karabakh, although the initial idea was to apply the Astana format of the OSCE Minsk Group, at the end of three years, Aliyev was able to turn the actual Karabakh into an internal issue and to a large extent brought the issue of Armenia to the table.
At the moment, the #Astana format is on the way to becoming an ideal ground for Armenia.
It is known that in the latest speeches, no matter how busy the Russian side is in Ukraine, it does not seem possible to give its position in Armenia.
Pashinyan and his power trying to keep the USA in the region as much as possible may end with Russia taking a step. In this matter, a number of steps of #Russia seem possible.
- Territorial claim against Armenia.
- Opening of Russian archives.
- Ensuring the safety of the Russian population in Armenia.
- Using Iran’s potential.
- Implementation of the Astana format + Azerbaijan addition.
- Uprising inside Armenia.
- Terrorism in Armenia.
- Destructive war in the region.
Who has what role?
Iran:
Armenia is considered a strategic ally for Iran and currently the main support in the region. The main point of the relations between the two countries is the existence of common security interests.
Tehran and Yerevan cannot imagine one without the other.
Turkey: the European gateway for the region and Armenia, an investment environment, a big market and an interesting neighbor. It promises good opportunities for Armenia, which can take shelter under its umbrella.
Azerbaijan: promises energy projects, investment climate and good neighborhood, jobs if peace signing is possible.
Russia: the main country where the Armenian majority lives, the main guarantor and provider of Armenia.
It seems impossible for any country in the region to allow the region to be lost:
While there are still Iranian troops in Southern Armenia and Russian troops in Western Armenia, why should Turkey and Azerbaijan not approach from two geographically neighboring security points and act preventively?
All eyes on #Putin for now.
Armenia will try to have a clash with Azerbaijan within 9 days. With this, it is possible to justify that American troops should remain in the region.
In any case, it seems that the Armenian leadership is either unaware of the geography where the two eagles face each other, or it is working on the Syrian model.